David Johnson on Future of Papers

This interview is part of the Future of Journalism interview series.

Interview with David E. Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision and a leading Republican pollster and strategist.

The San Diego paper is up for sale, the Miami paper is up for sale, the Minneapolis paper has missed an interest payment, the Chicago Tribune empire is in bankruptcy ... on and on we could go ... can you foresee major metro areas in the U.S. suddenly being without the printed word as their primary reliable source of information? If so, is this something terrible and deplorable or just an economic fact of life?

As the economy worsens and people continue to get their news from online sources or the 24/7 news channels, readership in newspapers will continue to decline. I think it is very likely that in some of our major cities and also highly probable in rural areas that there will be places with no daily newspapers. While sad as it is a passing of an era, it is also a result of both economics and technolgy.

Can adjustments be made to fill the gap and if so what would they be?

The adjustments I see will be that more and more newspapers will be online only with a reduced staff providing perhaps just a one day printed version. Newsroom staffs will be reduced and there will be a greater reliance on citizen journalists for local stories and the wire services for national stories.

Are there any metro areas that you think will always have papers, and if so which ones and why?

I see New York and Washington always having newspapers because they are the seats of financial and political power. They have strong traditions in printed newspapers and have in each city flagship newspapers that serve as sources for the wire services.

Just as one possible scenario ... is it plausible that USAT, the WSJ, NYT and WaPo will survive as national papers ... and the latter two as local ones as well ... and that for them to flourish they would form an economic consortium with bureaus in the major metro areas of the U.S. and the world ... but they wouldn't have separate reporters, they would have reporters doing the same story for all four to make it pay off?

I think that is very possible and has already been speculated at. Outside of those four, other newspapers will have to rely on them for national stories or the wire services. Indeed, we see Cox closing their news bureau in Washington. Copley has already closed down. Papers are relying now upon Associated Press, Bloomberg, and the New York Times services.

What do you think of the Detroit papers deciding to stop home delivery on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays?

I think this will be a new trend nationally. The newspapers cannot continue printing daily with declining readership and advertising. I expect this will happen in Atlanta next.

If many of its member papers fold, do you think the Associated Press ... America's major press distribution service ... can survive?

Yes, it can because of foreign subscribers and a greater demand from newspapers that used to field bureaus in other areas than their local area but no longer do.

Do you think papers in smaller metro areas and smaller towns have a better shot at survival? For those that don't, might they be replaced by a pricy online newsletter in the same way that an investor in Fidelity who wants reliable news and advice about Fidelity funds would probably take a newsletter focusing on it?

Smaller newspapers will survive in rural areas but may also be forced to become weekly. In areas where they don’t, online newsletters will be their replacements.

The Wall Street Journal used to charge for its electronic version. When Murdoch took over, he made it free. The Little Rock paper is perhaps the only even remotely metro paper that charges. What do you think of the decision by almost all major papers to make their content available online for free?

I think it is the only way they can get readers to go to their Web sites. With so many Web sites like Drudge and Real Clear Politics available, newspapers have no alternative but to offer online free.

Some newspaper subscribers, anecdotally, say they love having a printed product delivered to them every day and love holding it in their hands and love having it as part of their daily routine. Is this a significant factor for newspaper economics or is it disappearing like the dodo bird? Is it a deep-seated habit or one easily broken?

It is easily broken and will be replaced by people drinking their coffee and reading online news on their laptops.

What do you think of Pro Publica (foundation-supported investigative reporting venture offering its stories for free)?

I think this type of moral force journalism with private funding is a new wave. I think traditional journalism is dying and will be replaced by private funded agenda driven journalism.

Reflecting back on your days with the Dole campaign, do you feel you and he were fairly treated by the press? Were there any specific instances of unfairness you'd like to discuss? What do past and current public officials you know personally think of the press? Is fear of mistreatment by the press a significant limiting factor for those in public service, and is it a serious enough problem that good people don't want to enter public service?
The Dole campaign when it won did not experience the positive coverage that would be expected from winning and when it lost, the negative stories were magnified. The media are into winners and losers and often have their own narrative despite what is happening on the ground. Most people in public life believe that journalism has changed. Agendas are now driving coverage and stories and often drive people who would be good public servants from public service for fear of being attacked by this agenda driven journalism.

Some bloggers delight in the demise of newspapers, saying journalists are elitists who care profoundly about themselves but not "the common people" and that when a paper lays off 50 reporters it's laying off 50 Obama-ites who slant the news. Some conservatives say they have no problem getting their news from various sites on the Web and that they simply don't trust the honesty or the competence of the reporting in their local paper. Of course, papers also get it from the other side ... liberals who complain of coverage and editorial policy. What is your take on that?

I think journalism as I said has become agenda driven. I think 2008 saw the end of journalism as we knew it. The coverage on some of the networks on Sarah Palin went beyond the pale. It was personal and mean spirited driven by an agenda to destroy her politically. The same was seen toward Hillary Clinton. As a result of this, I think journalism suffered and people despite their views will never view journalism the same. Indeed when Ed Rendell, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, agrees with conservatives about the media, this says something about how journalism as we knew it suffered. Overall I foresee these views toward journalists completely changing America journalism towards a European model where there are the strong left media and strong right but little centist media.

What do you think of bloggers and citizen journalists? Do you have many in your community or on campus and if so, what's their impact?

I think bloggers at times catch failures that journalists don’t catch but at the same time bloggers exaggerate some stories far beyond what is needed.

We've just elected a presidential candidate whose one-word mantra was unspecified "change." How can we so easily accept change at the very top of our political structure but fear it so much when it is applied within the news media?

The news media have been looked to as a source of stability for nearly 50 years. They are brought into our houses and almost seem like a part of the family. They have in some way replaced the president as a fount of authority. This is similar to what happened with the president replacing governors and mayors with the use of television during the Eisenhower Adminstration

Mr. Johnson is CEO of Strategic Vision, a public relations and public affairs agency. He is a leading Republican pollster and strategist, and worked on Bob Dole's 1988 presidential campaign. He has appeared on CNN, FOX News Channel, CNBC, the BBC and Bloomberg Television, and in the Wall Street Journal, Politico, Washington Times, Human Events and many more for his expertise.